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Rasmussen Poll: Mary Fallin leads Joe Dorman by only 5%…

9 JB Dorman Bricktown Brewery

So you’re saying there’s a chance.

On Friday, Rasmussen released shocking poll results that show the 2014 Oklahoma Gubernatorial race is lot closer than anyone actually thought. How close? Mary Fallin only leads Joe Dorman by a 45% – 40% margin.

Yes, that’s only 5%. I guess blocking affordable healthcare for poor people, giving tax cuts to the 1%, allowing horse slaughter, denying access to public records, coming out against tornado shelters in schools, traveling across the world on the state’s dime, flunking third graders, discriminating against homosexuals, and naming her dog Okie and not Trooper has taken its toll on Mary Fallin’s popularity.

Via Rasmussen Reports:

Republican Mary Fallin is in a surprisingly close contest for reelection in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the 2014 gubernatorial race in Oklahoma.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Oklahoma Voters finds Fallin with 45% support to Democratic state Representative Joe Dorman’s 40%. Seven percent (7%) favor some other candidate, while eight percent (8%) are undecided…

Fallin, who previously served as lieutenant governor and a member of Congress, was elected governor in 2010 with 60% of the vote. She has long been expected to easily win reelection, but a poll released earlier this week by the Tulsa World shows Fallin’s favorables at a new low, even among her fellow Republicans.

The incumbent now has the support of 64% of Oklahoma Republicans, while 70% of the state’s Democrats favor Dorman. Fallin leads by seven points among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of all voters in the state now approve of the job Fallin is doing as governor, while 48% disapprove. This includes 20% who Strongly Approve and 28% who Strongly Disapprove.

Fallin is now viewed Very Favorably by 25% of Oklahoma voters and Very Unfavorably by 29%. For Dorman, Very Favorables are 11% and Very Unfavorables nine percent (9%). His biggest challenge at this point is name recognition: 35% of Oklahoma voters say they have never heard of him.

That’s one reason why at this point in an election cycle, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

First of all, I should probably mention that you won’t find this information anywhere in The Oklahoman. Since they like to protect their friends and own self interests more than report actual news, they ignored the Rasmussen numbers like they were a clown at a furry convention. Instead, they issued one of their patented right-wing editorials smearing Joe Dorman’s education plan. Yes, the same newspaper the endorsed Janet Barresi for State School Superintendent is criticizing someone else’s views on education.

Anyway, before you get too excited about this news, high-five your cubicle partner, cut into a Rush Springs watermelon, and plan your outfit for Joe Dorman’s Jimmy Buffet-themed Inauguration Ball, consider these important, and somewhat sad, realities:

1. Early poll numbers are not always accurate. If they were, T.W. Shannon would be headed to Washington and James Lankford would be applying for various DC lobbying positions.

2. Mary Fallin has large war chest at her disposal. According to the Tulsa World, Mary Fallin‘s re-election campaign took in almost $520,000 during the first three months of 2014 and has $1.7-million in cash on hand. Joe Dorman has only raised $173,617 and has $84,038 in cash. I don’t know if you can even buy a house in Del City for $84,000. It’s less than what Mary Fallin generally spends on leisurely travel alone.

3. Fallin hasn’t really tapped into that war chest. With these surprising numbers, I expect Mary to open up the vault sooner than later. The last thing she wants is for people to consider this an actual race. That would be as embarrassing as getting engaged at the Playboy Mansion. In fact, it could damage her political future and jeopardize her dream of being named Energy Secretary under a Republican president. Expect a barrage of faith, family (heh) and freedom postcards to appear in your mailbox soon.

4. We live in Oklahoma. Come on, do you really think our state will choose a Democratic Governor this November? Mary Fallin could botch her own execution and she’d still be elected. The only thing Oklahomans like more than electing Republican is football, guns and discrimination. Oh yeah, and obesity. I always forget about that.

All that being said, Mary Fallis is undisputedly a pretty awful Governor and not the brightest human being, so if anyone can get upset by a Parrothead from Rush Springs, it’s her. Hang on to that watermelon.

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Comments

  1. Don’t forget… nobody gave Brad Henry a chance against Steve Largent’s war chest either.

    • Henry had a lot of help from the cockfighting issue. And also from an independent candidate who drew 14% of the vote, mostly (I think) away from Republican Steve Largent.

      Wasn’t it awfully mean of God to tell Steve Largent to run for Governor, even though He knew Largent was going to lose?

    • As if you would even know what is and is not funny, gurbcock. THAT is funny. Shouldn’t you be taking in a few laughs from the chuckle crew on Red Eye? Attempted comedy for the common, comedically-challenged conservative – that seems to be your speed.

      Keep up the great work, Patrick and TLO.

  2. While I would love to see Governor Cougar go the way of Janet Barresi I just don’t believe it any more than I believed Kathy Taylor was going to win without a runoff as Mayor of Tulsa. Who paid for this poll? Could it have been someone who would benefit by a close race that would require a lot of advertising spending and campaign ads in the local media? A close race is always beneficial for printing companies, ad and PR companies as well as local TV, radio and newspapers. Now if Mary was really smart she would look into some banner ads on The Lost Ogle, and rename the puppy “Trooper”. Let the war chests open and cast their ever lovin’ glory on the local media, just like every Oklahoma election. Mary should take a page out of the Baressi playbook and borrow and spend her own money on the campaign, as we saw how that went for Janet.

    • Rasmussen is an independent national pollster. You’ll see them mentioned during presidential campaigns.

      What’s funny is that you usually see them on Fox News, because their results always end up biased towards the Republican candidate. If Rasmussen is saying Mary Fallin has only a five-point lead, the race may actually be a lot closer.

      • The most important thing in an off-year election is getting your voters to go to the polls. Creating the belief that the race is close and their vote is important is a good way of turning out the vote.

  3. Let Fallin open that war chest, the more she talks the worst she looks! I have heard a lot of crazy republicans say in recent weeks ‘I just can’t bring myself to vote for that crazy b*#%!’

  4. This poll really doesn’t say anything about the viability of Dorman. When I look at it, it really is just evidence of a weak governor.

    • I don’t think her daughter is helping her with the Chickasaws, but what the fuck do I know. They’ve given her money before, but it’s been said that the fruit falls not far from the tree.

  5. Mr. Dorman proposed legislation that would permit the harvesting of vital organs from living donors. Can’t go there.

    I didn’t vote for Gov. Prom Queen last time and I don’t know how I can this time, so I’m really hoping for the 2014 version of Thomas Ledgerwood to make an appearance.

    • Okay, yeah that’s a pretty whack-a-doodle piece of legislation. If Mary gets elected again, I don’t care if I have to sell my organs I’m getting the f*&* out of Oklahoma.

  6. Have no doubt he’ll get the Switzer endorsement, they’re buddies….so my “inside” source says. Joe is a good guy and family friend, I may be bias but I think he has a change to knock off Mattress Mary.

  7. Am I the only one that thinks getting the medical marijuana initiative on the ballot would be a huge boost to Dorman?
    Kinda like the cock fighting ban did for Henry?

    • Medical marijuana would seal Dorman’s fate as the “I once ran for Governor”. The last thing he wants is to give old people a reason to rally behind Fallin.

      • It would also give left-leaning voters a reason to turn out – something they often lack in an Oklahoma general election when the result is pre-ordained.

  8. Look at Mary Fallin’s Facebook post about the recent decision about gay marriage from the 10th circuit court. There were plenty of derps, but the majority of the comments were for gay marriage and heavily anti Fallin

  9. Show us the emails, Mary! Do you think that you can stonewall the people until after the election, governor?

  10. One quart, two quarts, three quarts a gallon! Who do we want for Govenor, anyone but Fallin

  11. No mention of the Rasmussen poll in the Oklahoman? The only mention of it in the Tulsa World has been a passing mention by Randy Krehbiel in a story last Saturday – about a speech by the CEO of SoonerPoll at the Tulsa Republican Club last Friday.

    Totally “fair and balanced,” aren’t they?

    • Looks like the Jokelahoman editorial staffers are avid TLO readers! They talked about it in today’s paper, but succeeded in reducing it to blather rather than talking about how the Governor is generating about as much excitement about her re-election as the President did. I like how they take the attitude that it’s the legislature’s fault (you know, the same folks they keep telling us to vote for).

  12. Oklahoma is 49th in education and 3rd in prison population. She took money from the education fund again this year and gave the rich a permanent tax cut. She is an evil person. In my opinion she has been bought by the FOP and the oil companies and the private prison system .

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