A new poll shows Playboy Joe Dorman is only 2% behind Mary Fallin…

With only 36 days remaining in the campaign, Joe Dorman, Democratic nominee for governor, is gaining ground as polls continue to show momentum. Both internal and external polls indicate that Dorman’s numbers continue to trend upward while his opponent cannot break 50 percent.

“The latest internal poll shows that we are in a statistical dead heat,” said Kendra Horn, Dorman’s Campaign Manager. “Joe is leading the way for our grassroots team to continue to work toward winning this election. Every day he travels across the state and demonstrates what it means to be a strong leader who is in touch with the people of Oklahoma. “

The poll, conducted by Tom Bonier of Clarity Campaign Labs, shows Dorman is within 2 points of the incumbent, Mary Fallin.

“I’m very excited to see the results of this latest poll. We show that Fallin is still under 50 percent and historically, an incumbent with such low numbers at this point does not win,” said Dorman. “We have worked tirelessly throughout this campaign to get to know the issues that are facing Oklahomans while Fallin has spent more time thinking about her Washington, D.C. cronies. Polls are only a strong indicator of a campaign’s success, but I’m confident if we keep up this momentum, I will be the next Governor of Oklahoma.”

We surveyed 841 voters and matched the sample to the voter file, weighting it to reflect a midterm electorate. The margin of error is +/-3.74%.

Our survey shows that Governor Fallin's decline in popularity and support that began late in 2013 has continued into September. The Governor's job approval is now net negative, with 46% of likely voters expressing disapproval of the job Mary Fallin is doing as governor, compared to 42% approving. The Governor enjoys high name ID, as one would expect with an incumbent, with only 5% of voters unfamiliar with Fallin.

Joe Dorman remains significantly less well-known than the Governor, with 37% of likely voters unfamiliar with him. Among those voters who registered an opinion, Representative Dorman enjoys strong ratings — 39% favorable, 25% unfavorable.

In the head to head contest, our survey finds Representative Dorman trailing Governor Fallin by 2% - 45% to 43% among likely voters, and 47% to 45% when including leaners. This result confirms that the Governor's decline in support has continued unabated over the past several months, and shows no sign of changing course.

It's worth noting that this 2% margin is well within the margin of error of the survey, making this race a statistical dead heat. What's more, history would suggest the Governor's re-election prospects are dim — in the 2010 election only one incumbent standing for reelection with a two-way polling average below 50% went on to win.

Our survey demonstrates that the coalition Representative Dorman is assembling is quite ideologically diverse. His coalition is built on a strong lead with Independents, winning 18% crossover Republican voters, and a consolidated Democratic base.

Also encouraging is the composition of the 8% of likely voters who are undecided. These swing voters disapprove of Mary Fallin's performance as Governor by a 22% net margin. As Representative Dorman's name ID increases, it is likely that his vote share will increase.

Clarity Campaign Labs is an innovator and leader in the field of survey research and analytics. Current and former polling andvoter modeling clients include Senators Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, Tim Koine, and John Tester, as well as NJ Majority Leader Lou Greenwald, NJ Senate President Steve Sweeney, Jean Schodorf for Secretary of State (KS), John Carney for Auditor (OH), Speaker Armond Budish (OH), and The New Republic Magazine.