Greetings, Lost Oglers. While I still wait for Patrick to send me my $20 check, here are some predictions for some of the state-wide races on tomorrow’s ballot:
1. Governor
First: Cornett (Strong OKC, second place in Tulsa, third place in rural).
Second: Stitt (Strong Tulsa, second place in rural, third place in in OKC)
Third: Lamb (Strong Rural second place finish in OKC, and third place in Tulsa).
Others. All below 5%, with Fisher edging Jones for 4th place. Richardson drops off the map.
As for the Democrats Drew Edmondson in a clear win, but Connie Johnson’s pot patrol will give her a few more haze induced votes.
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2. Republican Lieutenant Governor. Although four elephants filed for this mostly ceremonial post, the contest comes down to current Corporation Commissioner Dana Murphy versus Republican strategist Matt Pinnell. Matt raised more real cash than Dana, although she was able to transfer $600,000 from her previous campaigns.
Murphy has received significant telecom and energy moola and therefore should win, but she won’t. Party grassroots loyalists carry the day for Pinnell. Precinct busy bees beat out PAC pooh-bahs in this one. Ladies licking the envelopes actually care more about this post than suits in corner offices do. Makes sense. Second banana has nothing to sell to power brokers.
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3. Republican Attorney General.
The election features incumbent by appointment and man for all reasons Mike Hunter versus fighter pilot and bulldog lawyer Gentner Drummond. Both combatants have put personal money into the contest – $300,000.00 from Mike and $825,000.00 by the G-Man. Hmmm. This is for a job that pays $132,825, so it ain’t about the salary. They hate each other and their TV spots confirm it. A month ago 80% of voters were undecided about this race. Media buys have solved that. F-16 driver beats alleged lifetime lobbyist (he wasn’t and isn’t, but that doesn’t matter now) by more than six points.
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4. Republican Labor Commissioner
If there is nothing like a woman scorned, how about two? Leslie Osborn, lawmaker from Mustang, and Kathy Costello, wife of deceased Commish Mark Costello, are neck and neck for the nomination of this secondary, but important post.
Leslie’s TV spots tout her courage in taking on the “bad ole boys” in the legislature, which cost her a key chairmanship, while Kathy promises reforms in mental health, a disease that’s obviously taken a toll on her family. For Osborne to win, she’ll have to close a current but narrow deficit. With SQ 788 on the ballot to boost turnout she may……… by a whisker.
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5. Republican Corporation Commissioner
FBI wire wearer Bald Anthony, the incumbent, versus former Senate Pro Tempore Brian Bingman, a man best remembered in the legislature for making few enemies……..because he did few things.
Look, Brian needs a job, works as a land man for a small oil company in Tulsa, and will do what he is told to do by the energy czars just like his time in the legislature. Bald Anthony will remind everyone he is the wire man who took down Southwestern Bell and sent former Corp Com bribe taker Bob Hopkins to the slammer. That ancient saga has elected Anthony for decades and will again. The heir of Anthony’s defunct store chain will win in a walk.
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6. SQ 788
Pot heads versus puritans. The sick versus their docs. Millennials at war with worry wart Boomers. The result? SQ 788 becomes law by about 53% to 47%. Outcome: Most everybody rolls several and cancels family vacation in Estes Park, Colorado. Rafts Little Sahara Desert instead. Thinks it’s the Illinois River.
Cal Hobson is a former State Senator. At least we think he is.
I don’t know how tomorrow’s going to go down but always enjoy your take on Okie politics! And hey – I hope you are right!
Interesting predictions, especially on the medicinal marijuana vote. I just saw a cartoon in the New Yorker showing a sign at Canadian border …”Welcome to Canada where we smoke pot to deal with trump.”
Leslie (Ms. Osborn if you’re nasty) is a Mustang girl and she oozes it all over my television whenever her ads appear. She and Ms. Wagnon should run for Governor/Lt. Governor; I’d PPV the fistfight to see who gets top billing and then sit back right easy and laugh as the Scooter and the Big Stang bust the country in half. I digress.
Anyway, Democratic candidate ads on TV being the proverbial Halley’s Comet, I’ll probably just vote for who I know and who I know about and hope for the best (and prepare for Armageddon)
Love the Springsteen reference!
I was kinds undecided about SQ788 until all the noise about it’s really recreational marijuana and now I’m like all “Hell yes!” I’ve already moved the potted plants off the back porch in anticipation of 12 Columbia Gold pot plants waving in the breeze.
You forgot a prediction on the Kevin Calvey / Richard Buchanan race. Received a mass mailing from Toni Calvey, Kevin’s wife that was made to look like a hand written note where she tells us Kevin doesn’t need the job, they are financially secure in our investments, and Kevin’s business. His wife seems to believe they would make more money if he wasn’t in office, but since politics is Kevin’s business not sure how he would continue to make money if he wasn’t in office. The letter reeks of desperation, and a wife generally knows when there is trouble.
Also got a mailer paid for by the Oklahoma AFL-CIO endorsing Leslie Osborn as Labor Commissioner. Am scratching my head as to why the AFL-CIO is endorsing a Republican for Labor Commissioner but will be voting for her.
Not sure if I agree with your prediction on Governor, you do have the correct top three names just not in the correct win/place/show order. I’m guessing all three will be very close, and the one in third will be squeeling for days, and there might even be a recount to figure the two for the runoff. Had Heywood Jablomee campaigned earlier no runoff would have been needed.
Think you are correct on the State Question, and voters need to remember all the Republican Gubernatorial candidates have said publicly they intend to vote against the SQ788, which shows how well they understand the public. If it indeed passes a lot of politicians got a double punch of reality, first from the teachers and then from the voters. November is going to be a lot of fun.
From your keyboard to Yahweh’s inbox.
Lord how I hope you’re wrong on AG. You don’t accumulate over 400,000 acres of Indian land without leaving a few dead Indians around. If you wouldn’t trust your Fighter pilot to go on a camping trip with the Boy Scouts, why would you elect him to be the highest law enforcement official?
Mvto!
A Cornett win would shock me, as it would show that GOP voters are actually capable of learning from history. Most are idiot Trumpkins, and Lamb has done all but had his lips sewn to Marmalape’s pucker hole during this campaign.
Just vote Dem. Doesn’t matter if they have two heads with a combined IQ of 30 — vote Democrat.
Anyone heard where Mary is headed? Maybe she can go take Sarah Huckabee Sander’s job and get run out of decent restaurants.
Oh, CANADA…. Oh, CANADA….
Good call, Cal… my exact thoughts on all races..
I hope 788 passes by more than that because frankly… I don’t trust Republicans to count the votes if it’s close.
The big question is if was drunk driving while writing this…
Dude, get over it….
he said he SOBERLY studied the campaign reports . . .
Love your analysis – although I’m not sure about the Governor’s race. I think the top three could finish in any order and I wouldn’t be surprised, but I think Lamb will make it to the runoff (where he’ll then lose.)
I just hope it isn’t todd lamb
I always enjoy Cal’s assessments. His perspective is unique having been there and done that~quite well I should say~ in the political arena.